TEHRAN- The global economy is moving into dangerous territory as the two-month conflict between the United States and Iran continues to choke oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to an analysis published on Saturday by The Globe and Mail.

While financial markets have remained surprisingly buoyant, fueled by repeated U.S. media reports suggesting an imminent peace deal, columnist John Rapley warns that those assurances may be masking a rapidly deteriorating situation.

The Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed, with insurers refusing to cover vessels navigating the channel. Ship owners are staying away, and the flow of oil from the Gulf has nearly stopped. A full-blown energy crisis has already broken out across much of Asia, where fuel is being rationed and plastic supplies are running out.

North America has so far been shielded by large buffer stocks and local supply, experiencing only higher gasoline prices. But those reserves are depleting quickly, partly because U.S. companies are boosting exports to meet global demand. Estimates vary, but some analysts predict stocks could run dry within four weeks. If that threshold is crossed, oil prices could skyrocket to $150 per barrel or more.

Signs of stress are already appearing in bond markets, where interest rates on government debt have risen nearly a third of a percentage point higher than before the war. Airlines are cutting flights, and drivers are reducing their mileage in response to rising pump prices.

Rapley notes there is genuine desire on both sides for a truce, and China is likely persuading Iran to reach a deal. However, significant gaps remain, particularly over Iran's nuclear program. The current proposal is essentially an agreement to keep talking, with even the best-case scenario requiring weeks more negotiations.

But the world economy does not have that kind of time. The columnist concludes that U.S. President Donald Trump may ultimately have no choice but to accept a deal that looks like surrender — something his apparent aversion to being labeled a loser makes far from certain.